Poker Strategy >> Poker Math >> Wizard of Odds

Wizard of Odds

How the hell can I improve the odds of winning while play a game of poker. Still Wondering?

Figuring out your odds of winning is a matter of "counting your outs". When a bet is made, and you're offered 7:1 odds, this means that the other person will pay you 7 if you win, and you will pay him 1 if you lose.

Figuring out the pot odds is simple. It is simply the size-of-the-pot to amount-you-have-to-pay-to-call. If the pot is $50, and your opponent bets $50 ("bets the pot") the pot will grow to $100. You will have to pay another $50 to call, meaning that your odds are 100:50. Since it's only the ratio we are interested in, we can simplify 100:50 to 2:1. So if your opponent bets the pot, your odds are 2:1 on a call. However figuring out the odds of winning is even more difficult.

I'll mostly be dealing with hands after the flop but you should know some basics before the flop. Against any other single hand, pocket Aces are at least an 80% favorite. That means that you'll win at least 80% of the time in the long run against one other opponent when you've got Rockets. If you have pocket Kings, it's 44 to 1 against someone having pocket Aces at the table. Any pocket pair is a slight favorite in all-in situations against one player with two over cards, although it's just about a coin flip situation. Perhaps most important is understanding what to do on the flop with those straight and flush draws.

Let's say that you're holding 6d-7h from late position and the flop comes 8d-9h-Ks. Any 10 or 5 will give you a straight, and this is called an open-ended straight draw. The odds of completing your straight by the river are slightly worse than 2 to 1, so you'll hit your straight roughly 1 in 3 times. If the pot is $100 and an opponent bets $30, you'll be getting over 4 to 1 pot odds so you should definitely at least call. If you're on a gutshot straight draw where only one value will make you a straight, the odds are about 5 to 1 that you'll hit it by the river.

Regarding flush draws, the odds are slightly better but average out to about 2 to 1 also. That is, the odds are 2 to 1 against you hitting the fifth suited card by the river. Let's say that you have Jc-10c and the flop is 2c-Ac-9h. You'll need any additional club to complete your flush. In this situation, if the pot is $100 again but you opponent bets $200, you're only getting about 1.5 to 1 pot odds - not enough to make the call.

Well these are a few statistics to improve your winning odds, however let me reiterate the fact that only playing poker on a regular basis will help you beat the odds of losing!